Give Japan's royal diplomacy a chance

by Fumio Kitamura.
Something is amiss within Japan's Imperial household.
For nearly a year now, the Crown Princess Masako has
suspended her official functions for "health reasons."
The public knew next to nothing about the details of her
disposition or the effectiveness of treatment, for
reasons that included the extreme lack of information
disclosed by the Imperial Household Agency and the
voluntary restraint on reporting exercised by Japan's
mass media.

Eventually, the cause of Princess Masako's impaired
health was disclosed in an unexpected manner. The Crown
Prince himself said during a press conference in May
that the Crown Princess had been "deeply distressed by
the fact that she was not freely permitted to pay
overseas visits, even though she considered promoting
international good will an important role to be played
by a member of the Imperial family."

He went further, stating flatly that "there were indeed
some moves purporting to dismiss Masako's career and her
personality based on that career."

It was an unprecedented event in the Imperial family,
bound by tradition and convention and cloaked in a heavy
shroud of secrecy. It was only after the Crown Prince's
comments that the Imperial Household Agency announced
Princess Masako's illness to be "stress-induced
adjustment disorder."

Taken together, the Crown Prince's comments and the
official announcement of the Crown Princess's illness
allows us to infer that she had been tormented by the
inability to fulfill her self-imposed duty of Imperial
diplomacy and by a myriad of related psychological
pressures.

Ordinary Japanese cannot fathom the kind of Imperial
diplomacy that the Crown Princess had been aspiring to.
Up to the mid-19th century, the fate of nations was
decided by the flamboyant and elegant diplomacy of
monarchs that was described as the "congress dances."

However, the epoch of absolute monarchy has long gone.
While several advanced countries still retain
monarchies, they do so under the "reigns but does not
rule" principle. Politicians and bureaucrats are the
central players in diplomatic negotiations. Members of
royalty are no longer diplomatic players in the true
sense of the word. Why then do we still refer to the
term "royal diplomacy"?

For today's royal houses, the opportunity for
international exchange lies mostly in ceremonial visits
to other countries -- attendance at royal weddings and
funerals and visits for good will and charity. Broad
attempts at contacting citizens of the receiving country
are made during the visits. Itineraries consists mainly
of attendance at charity events and concerts, art
exhibitions and sports events, as well as inspection
tours of kindergartens, universities, hospitals and
nursing homes. Almost without exception, royal diplomacy
is characterized by a schedule of events that are highly
visible to the mass media.

In today's information age, members of royalty attract
extra media attention as "noble celebrities." Their
graceful yet unassuming demeanor and friendly
conversations with the general public are magnified by
media reports. And the royal image thus created with
these goodwill visits has the effect of planting in the
minds of the general public an image of the country
whence they came.

The greatest function that can be expected of "royal
diplomacy" is creating a positive impression of the
society that has a constitutional monarchy.

Internal change within a royal household also tends to
signify social changes taking place in that particular
country. In the royal houses of Europe and the Middle
East, career women of common birth and foreign women
with a history of divorce are sometimes chosen as crown
princesses. Such news is received outside those
countries as an indication of democratic maturity and
tolerance not only by the royal house concerned but also
by that society as a whole.

Political leaders such as presidents and prime ministers
can seldom be expected to communicate a positive image
of their society to the outside world. While there are
no doubt many leaders with high-minded personalities,
power struggles are dogged by conspiracy, oppression and
treachery. There is no end to the number of political
leaders who have been stained by scandals involving
bribery and corruption, nepotism or illegal information
gathered against political rivals.

Severed from political power, today's constitutional
monarchies have been freed from the negative elements of
politics. Their transformation into such a detached role
has expanded the domains in which "royal diplomacy" can
be effective.

Crown Princess Masako is blessed with ample qualities
for pursuing "royal diplomacy." She was educated at the
best universities in America, Japan and Britain, is
fluent in several languages and has experienced
difficult diplomatic negotiations as a career diplomat.
She is an invaluable asset for communicating Japan's
good image abroad. That the Crown Princess has suddenly
disappeared from the public view and remains unable to
perform her official functions is indeed a considerable
loss in terms of promoting international exchange.

To help Princess Masako overcome her adjustment
disorder, we must alleviate and eliminate the
psychological pressure. According to media reports in
Japan and abroad, the greatest cause of pressure
apparently originates from her concern that she has yet
to produce a male heir to the Imperial throne. Many also
report that the Crown Princess also suffers from the
heavy sense of stagnation and isolation caused by
long-standing protocol that places excessive
restrictions on her freedom in daily life.

To restore a lively expression to Princess Masako's
face, it is essential to encourage more openness in the
Imperial institution and respect for the individual
freedom of Imperial family members. We must also
consider revising the Imperial Household Law, which
limits the right of succession to a male heir, and open
the way to accession of an empress.

[Fumio Kitamura is the former general manager of the FPC,
a former professor of Shukutoku University and former senior
editor and London bureau chief of the Yomiuri Shimbun.]

Did North Korea Cheat?

Did North Korea Cheat?
by Selig S. Harrison

From Foreign Affairs, January/February 2005

Summary: Two years ago, Washington accused Pyongyang of
running a secret nuclear weapons program. But how much
evidence was there to back up the charge? A review of
the facts shows that the Bush administration
misrepresented and distorted the data-while ignoring the
one real threat North Korea actually poses.

Selig S. Harrison is Director of the Asia Program and
Chairman of the Task Force on U.S. Korea Policy at the
Center for International Policy. He is also a Senior
Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for
Scholars and the author of Korean Endgame.

www.foreignaffairs.org

[Click the title to access the article of Foreign
Affairs January February 2005]

A Japanese military officer breaking the Constitution?

A senior officer in the Ground Self-Defense Force has
compiled a draft plan for revising the Constitution to
authorize the existence of a "military force" and enable
the nation to engage in collective defense, it was
learned Saturday according to Kyodo quoted by a
newspaper in Japan.

The officer submitted the plan in October to Gen
Nakatani, a former Defense Agency chief who currently
heads a Liberal Democratic Party committee tasked with
drafting the party's proposal for a constitutional
amendment, according to sources familiar with the case.

All of the basic points contained in the officer's draft
were subsequently reflected in the outline of the
party's proposal for changing the Constitution, which
was compiled last month.

The officer was identified as a lieutenant colonel
assigned to the Plans and Operations Department of the
Ground Staff Office.

The LDP plans to finalize its proposal for a
constitutional amendment in November 2005, when the
party marks the 50th anniversary of its founding.

Nakatani, a uniformed SDF officer before he was elected
to the House of Representatives, confirmed that he had
asked the GSDF officer to single out problems of the
current Constitution from the viewpoint of national
security as he was trying to put together the LDP's
policy outline.

"I asked for his help so that I can study the matter as
a politician. I requested that he do so in my private
capacity, and I don't see any problem," said Nakatani,
who headed the Defense Agency between 2001 and 2002.

However, involvement by a uniformed SDF officer in the
ruling party's policymaking process in a highly
sensitive issue such as amending the Constitution could
stir up controversy, especially in light of the postwar
principle of civilian control of the military.

A senior Justice Ministry official well versed in
constitutional issues said that if the officer compiled
the draft in his official capacity as an SDF member, he
may have violated a public servant's duty to comply with
the Constitution.

The draft proposal submitted to Nakatani, a copy of
which has been obtained by Kyodo News, is titled
"Constitution draft" and bears the name of the GSDF
officer and his officer contact number.

While the draft says Japan will "renounce the threat or
use of force as a means of settling international
disputes," it calls on the nation to possess a military
force for the defense of the country.

The war-renouncing Article 9 of the current Constitution
says that "land, sea and air forces and other war
potential will never be maintained."

The draft also says the military force will be able to
engage in collective defense so that it can take part in
collective security frameworks. The government has
interpreted the current Constitution as banning the
nation from exercising its right o collective defense.

The lieutenant colonel also prepared a document titled
"other issues that should be included," which advises
against a draft system for compulsory military service.
This too was reflected in the LDP's revision outline.

Emails prove ties among military services, defense and Congress...

"Everyone's nervous," Acting Undersecretary of Defense
Michael W. Wynne warned in a confidential e-mail to Air
Force Secretary James G. Roche on July 8, 2003.

It was two days before the Bush administration was to
send its first detailed report to Congress about a
controversial Air Force plan to lease refueling tankers
from the Boeing Co., and a few days after a fierce
backroom struggle over its language between critics of
the plan and Air Force enthusiasts.

[To read the article, click the title]

Asia is THE target market for luxury brands! Why?

Seven years of economic woe may have taught Asia's
zealous shoppers some restraint but, with economies
picking up, they are again flocking to luxury goods
stores, only this time with a more discerning eye.

As disposable incomes nudge the record highs of the
mid-90s Asian boom years, consumers have spurned the
spend, spend spend attitude for a more choosy approach
towards the finer things in life.

"The market is more mature now, people are not just
throwing money at the most expensive thing; they have
learned and they are choosing wisely," says Simon Tam,
wine consultant with the Cafe Deco Group chain of bars
and restaurants in Hong Kong.

"They are investing in quality as opposed to the things
they think they should be buying."

Asia is THE target market for luxury brands, accounting
for more sales than any other region, including Europe
and the United States.

For instance, half of Switzerland's eight billion
dollars of annual watch exports come here.

"The barometer of how well a (newly launched) watch will
do depends on two key markets, Asia and Italy,"
Singapore's Sincere Watch executive vice-president Ong
Ban tells AFP.

"If it can do well in these two major markets, it will
usually do well in other parts of the world."

Asia's numbers are huge. For France's LVMH, the world's
largest luxury goods maker and parent of brands such as
Louis Vuitton and Veuve Clicquot, 40 percent of world
sales are generated here. For shoe label Gucci it's 45
percent.

Still heading demand is Japan, which for some brands
accounts for a third of global sales.

Although economic problems have cast a shadow over the
past 15 years, designer labels are still investing
heavily. Among them is French retailer Chanel, which
will open a 240-million-dollar flagship store in Tokyo
on December 2 on the famous Ginza avenue, just near
Cartier's building.

"Chanel's revenue in Japan is three times more than in
France," said Richard Colasse, CEO of Chanel Japan.

If mobile phones were icon of the last boom, this one is
likely to be characterised by the smell of cigar smoke.

"In the last year dozens of humidors have opened
throughout Hong Kong -- and all the hotels I speak to
are busy putting together cigar and brandy deals in
their bars," says Andrew Dembina, editor of the newly
launched Cigar Cutter magazine, aimed at Asia's new
generation of stogie chompers. "You didn't see that
before.

"The market is also different in that consumers are no
longer simply buying Cuban cigars because they are the
most expensive. Like the early days of new world wines
people are experimenting and sourcing cheaper cigars of
equal quality from other parts of the world."

Huge changes have been seen in the luxury travel market,
with travellers opting more for private flight charters
in the wake of the September 11, 2001 US terror attacks.
They are also demanding more value for money and healthy
options.

"Guests are getting younger, they are asking for more
for their money and they want more than just gyms," said
a spokeswoman for Hong Kong's Peninsula Hotel, one of
the most luxurious in Asia.

"Guests are indulging themselves still, but they are
doing it with the family or as couples."

Some things, however, are so luxurious that their
attraction remains unaffected by mere economics.

Rolls Royce sells some 15 percent of its bespoke
limousines to Asian customers. Its Phantom model,
released last year, is the most expensive car the
100-year old company has ever produced.

"We launched it during SARS but it still sold as
expected -- about 1,000 a year -- because super-luxury
goods avoid the cyclical nature of economics," Colin
Kelly, the brand's regional director, tells AFP.

While Hong Kong no longer possesses more "Rollers" than
anywhere else, Kelly says the honour has not gone far.

"China is probably up there now -- 25 percent of our
Asian sales go to China now," says Kelly.

If the traditional Asian markets are maturing, the
Chinese luxury market is still in its formative stage --
and revelling in conspicuous spending.

Analysts expect growth in the world's most populous
country to boost Asia's share of world luxury sales to
60 percent.

"Chinese people have no qualms about rewarding
themselves for their success," says Rolls Royce's Kelly.
"It's natural for them to show off their success."

Shanghai's Nanjing Road is proof of the revolution.
Along the metropolis's Fifth Avenue, the titans of
Western luxury have replaced once shabby shops with chic
boutiques.

Christian Dior, which has been in China since 1998,
recently doubled its presence in the elite Plaza 66 mall
and is planning to set up Dior Hommes in December
alongside Prada, Cartier and Gucci. And Italian Ferrari
opened its first office in this September.

"Chinese have expressed a great interest in Ferrari and
the lifestyle that we represent," said Enrico Mussetto,
a top marketing executive with the firm.

"Our customers are successful people who know how to
take advantage of the economic growth that China has to
offer," Musseto said.

Covering Japan's Royals, according to Tony Mac Nicol

[This article is interesting in describing a certain
impression generally spread in the western media about
the crude reaction to press covering the Imperial
family. The blog's owner does not necessarily agree with
the author of the OJR]

"The Imperial family is in crisis, but that's often hard
to tell from Japanese media reports on royalty.
Conservative editorial policies, self-censorship and the
threat of right-wing intimidation prevent the media from
opening a proper debate on the Chrysanthemum Throne's
role in modern Japan.

by Tony Mc Nicol.

Many observers believe that interest in the Japanese
Imperial Household is at an all-time low. The emperor
and his family are often compared to civil servants --
and they are just about as glamorous. Few in number and
entirely supported by the state, generally they are left
to smile, wave and cut ribbons without too much
attention from the press or public.

All the same, in recent months the royal household has
been getting a bit more publicity than it's used to --
and unusually bad publicity at that. The popular Crown
Princess Masako, under pressure to bear an heir to the
Chrysanthemum Throne, reportedly suffered a nervous
breakdown and wasn't seen in public for months until two
brief appearances in September. (The palace also
released video of her playing happily with her only
daughter, Princess Aiko.) In May her husband, Crown
Prince Naruhito, stunned the press and public by using a
routine press conference to allocate blame for his
wife's illness and make a thinly veiled attack on
Imperial Household Agency bureaucrats.

The Japanese Imperial family is undergoing a quiet
crisis. In the short-term it seems likely that the rules
will have to be changed to allow Princess Aiko to one
day become empress. A long-term problem is that, if not
actively disliked, more and more the Imperial family is
simply ignored. Some commentators believe that public
indifference to the Imperial family is the result of its
growing irrelevance to modern Japan. They say it needs
to find a new role for itself before the Japanese public
loses interest completely.

In other constitutional monarchies one might expect that
role to be discussed through the media -- or if the
monarchy really is so irrelevant, questions about
whether the royals are actually needed at all. But there
is precious little sign of that. Instead, reports
largely skim the surface of events, refusing to delve
into more profound and troublesome issues.

Take an article in the June 10 edition of the weekly
Shukan Bunshun. The five-page report promised to look
"behind the Chrysanthemum curtain" and listed "10 taboo
topics" of the Imperial Household, including: "What is
the real cause of Princess Masako's illness?" and "What
is the budget of the Imperial palace?" Even, "Why
doesn't the Crown Prince drive?" and "How good is
Princess Masako at cooking?"

What was noticeable by their absence in the list,
however, were the biggest taboos of all: Namely, any
real criticism of the royal family or questioning of the
role of the institution itself.

Jun Kamei, a writer and teacher who spent 21 years
working for the Shukan Shichou tabloid weekly, points
out that 60 or so years might have passed since people
could be executed for criticizing the emperor, but old
habits die hard. "Freedom of speech and expression are
recognized," he says. "But all the same, those unwritten
rules are left over."

"Not one reporter ever asked Emperor Hirohito about his
responsibility for the war in Asia, potentially one of
the great stories of the last half century." -- David
McNeill, Japan Focus

"(It is) corporate censorship, or self-censorship by the
media," says Kenichi Asano, a professor of journalism
and mass communications at Doshisha University in Kyoto.
Along with the Yakuza organized crime networks, the
Imperial family is the big taboo subject for the
Japanese media.

Few journalists are brave enough to step out of line, he
says. "The top-ranking people in the press are mostly
close to the LDP (the ruling Liberal Democratic Party).
Young journalists know also that if they write something
to criticize the emperor system, they will lose their
future."

During his 22 years at Kyodo News, Asano doggedly
refused to use special honorific terms (such as adding
"sama" to the end of a royal's name) when he wrote about
members of the Imperial family. "Always my editors
complained, 'You are against the Kyodo stylebook.' And I
told them, 'No, you are against the constitution.'" His
editors added the honorifics anyway.

A further psychological constraint on those
contemplating lese majesty is the threat of violence
from right-wing groups.

"As long as you don't say anything to resist the system,
it is calm and nothing happens," says Asano. But Japan's
journalists know the stories of those who dare to break
the unwritten rules. In June 2000 Yasunori Okadome, the
editor of a now defunct weekly magazine, Uwasa no
Shinso, received an unexpected visit from two members of
a right-wing organization. After clubbing him over the
head with a glass ashtray, they stabbed him for
neglecting to use an honorific when referring to
Princess Masako in an article.

Asano compares the media in Japan with their
counterparts in the United Kingdom. The U.K.'s Guardian
newspaper, a leading left-of-center daily, is openly
anti-monarchy. In December 2000 the paper pinned its
political colors to the mast, arguing in a leader that
Queen Elizabeth's successor should be replaced with an
elected head of state. Such an editorial stance is
unimaginable in Japan, Asano says.

Despite the self-imposed and external constraints,
journalists left with a hot story burning a hole in
their notebooks will often manage to get the news out.
Stories that might cause problems for press club
affiliated publications reach the public through weekly
magazines. Stories that no Japanese publication would
touch sometimes break in the foreign press.

"It's an odd system," says Kamei. "It depends on size
(of the story) ... the larger the story, the further it
will travel."

The media don't just pull punches, on occasion they
don't even bother stepping into the ring. Historic news
stories concerning the Imperial family have been
completely ignored by the major Japanese news
organizations and their thousands of reporters have been
repeatedly scooped by overseas publications in their own
back yard. In 1993 The Washington Post showed up the
Japanese media by breaking news of the engagement of
Masako and Naruhito after it had been embargoed by the
Imperial Household Agency.

It happened again in May of this year. Only after the
London Times revealed that Princess Masako was being
treated for a mental breakdown did the story appear in
the Japanese press. That's not to say Japanese
journalists didn't know about it in the first place,
explains Richard Lloyd Parry, author of the article.
"When we heard this story I talked privately to a number
of Japanese journalists, some of them senior, and they
had all heard about it," he says. "It didn't come as a
surprise to any of them. But none of them would have
dreamt of printing it. They could only do that because
we had."

Actually, the Japanese press may have something of a
guilty conscience over their coverage of Masako. When
the princess became pregnant in 1999, the media provided
enthusiastic and relentless coverage. Masako suffered a
miscarriage and the Imperial Household Agency had harsh
criticism for the press.

The press club system, often described as media cartels
that deny official information to nonmembers, also
discourages royal household reporters from rocking the
boat. As Independent (U.K.) correspondent David McNeill
pointed out in an article for the Japan Focus Web site,
press club members just don't ask the questions their
interviewees won't want to hear. "Not one reporter ever
asked Emperor Hirohito about his responsibility for the
war in Asia, potentially one of the great stories of the
last half century."

What are the chances of the press opening a real debate
on the Imperial Household? That may yet depend on the
depth of the present crisis. On the surface, it looks
like Masako's plight has been a PR catastrophe for the
royal household. Naoki Inose, a writer and media
commentator, says that the Imperial Household's standing
was already weakened before the present crisis. "What is
certain is that (the royal family's) deepest cultural
and psychological role has become diluted (since the
Pacific War)."

He believes that the bureaucrats of the Imperial
Household Agency made a serious mistake by forcing
Masako into a conservative role. At the time of her
marriage to Naruhito, Masako was seen as figure to whom
modern Japanese women could relate. An intelligent and
internationally minded working woman, she was the
Imperial family's chance to renew itself for the times.
Reportedly, Masako turned down the prince several times
before being persuaded that she could continue her
diplomatic work as a member of the Imperial Family.

But not everyone agrees that the Imperial institution
has actually been weakened. Asano suggests that the
strength of taboos concerning reporting of the royal
family is evidence of the system's strength. "Many
Japanese intellectuals and journalists say that the
emperor system is getting weaker, (that it is) in
crisis," he says. "I don't think so at all." Sometimes
he jokingly tells students who think the Imperial
Household has no connection with modern Japanese society
that they should start a demonstration outside the old
palace in Kyoto -- then wait to see what kind of
reaction they get from the police.

It's not easy to gauge Japanese affection for individual
royals or for the institution, not least because no
newspaper would dare to measure unpopularity. All the
same, most commentators seem to agree that interest has
been declining quite steadily since the end of the
Pacific War.

The public's apparent indifference might be a reflection
of the isolated lives of the Imperial Family. They are
entirely supported by the state and have no assets of
their own. They seem to live in a suffocatingly small
social world. As Lloyd Parry of the London Times puts
it, "They carry all the burdens of royalty without any
of the perks."

They also have far fewer opportunities to be involved
with charitable work than other royal families. The Web
site of Prince Charles, the heir to the U.K. throne,
states that the prince is president or patron of 363
charities. The Japanese prince's site lists just one
permanent post, the Japanese Red Cross.

Several commentators have described the prince's recent
outburst to the media as "a second declaration of
humanity," comparing it to his grandfather's
renunciation of divinity after the close of World War
II.

Few Japanese today consider the emperor to be a god, but
it's possible that few members of the public or media
relate to the Imperial Family as human beings, either.
As Jun Kamei comments, "I think (the crown prince) was
probably saying, 'I'm a human. My wife's a human, too"."
(Story modified on Sept. 24, 2004)

Firm eyes sale of Japanese military plane abroad

Anticipating a shift in government policy on arms
exports, a company is gearing up to sell to overseas
buyers aircraft used solely by the Self-Defense Forces,
according to sources to the Asahi shimbun.

ShinMaywa Industries Ltd. has been supplying the
Maritime SDF with its US-1A short-takeoff-and-landing
amphibian plane since 1974.

An upgraded version of the search-and-rescue aircraft,
the US-1A Kai, has drawn interest from overseas for its
potential to be refitted to fight wildfires.

It is not the first time.

Controversy erupted in the 1970s over whether the plane
could be exported to the United States. Opposition
parties then raised questions in the Diet about the
nature of the military aircraft, claiming it could not
be exported under the government ban on weapons export.

The government ruled in 1975 that since the US-1A would
not be used directly in combat, it was exempt from the
ban. ShinMaywa decided at the time, however, not to
export the aircraft.

But times have changed.

The government's recent plans to ease the arms-export
ban for joint U.S.-Japan missile defense and weapons
production has apparently set the stage for ShinMaywa to
reconsider selling the planes overseas.

It would be the first time a domestic aircraft used by
the SDF was sold abroad.

The MSDF currently maintains seven US-1A aircraft at its
Iwakuni base. The planes are not armed.

The upgraded US-1A Kai will eventually take over the
search-and-rescue roles of its predecessor for the MSDF.

The improved version will have a higher flying altitude,
greater speed and longer flying distance. Development of
the US-1A Kai began in 1996. Its first prototype was
delivered to the Defense Agency in March.

ShinMaywa officials said the fuel tank on the US-1A Kai
can be modified to allow the aircraft to scoop up to 15
tons of water from a lake or ocean to drop on fires.

The company has received inquiries from European
nations, such as France and Greece, as well as the
United States, its officials said.

A model was displayed at Britain's Farnborough Air Show
in July.

ShinMaywa has begun discussions with the Ministry of
Land, Infrastructure and Transport to get the documents
needed to allow private-sector sales.

North Korean Missile Taepo Dong Ready for Testing

The CIA posted the unclassified version of its report to
Congress on weapons of mass destruction:

North Korea is nearly self-sufficient in developing and
producing ballistic missiles and continues to procure
needed raw materials and components from various foreign
sources.

In the second half of 2003, North Korea continued to
abide by its voluntary moratorium on flight tests
adopted in 1998 but announced it may reconsider its
September 2002 offer to continue the moratorium beyond
2003.

The multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2- potentially capable of
reaching parts of the United States with a
nuclear-weapon-sized payload-may be ready for
flight-testing.

[Click the tittle to get the CIA report]

British army to protect Japan's forces in Iraq ? Not so fast!

Japan has asked the British army to help protect its
troops in southern Iraq after Dutch soldiers withdraw
from the area in March next year.

Japanese and British generals have held discussions, but
Britain has so far not promised to send troops to the
area, the daily Asahi Shimbun said without citing
sources.

Japan has about 550 troops in the southern Iraq city of
Samawa, but its pacifist constitution limits their
activities to aid and reconstruction, including
providing fresh water.

Dutch troops from a nearby base currently maintain
security in Samawa, but the Dutch government has decided
to withdraw the troops in March. Dutch Defence Minister
Henk Kamp is set to meet Japanese officials this week to
explain the decision.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, a close ally of U.S.
President George W. Bush, is widely expected to extend
Japan's own mission beyond its initial deadline of
December 14, although no official announcement has been
made.

Newspaper polls indicate a majority of the electorate
want the troops to return home in December.

Katsuya Okada, leader of Japan's main opposition
Democratic Party, has called on Koizumi to explain the
extension, rather than make the decision at a cabinet
meeting after parliament goes into recess.

"If he extends the mission without doing so, he cannot
get away with it as a politician and as a human being,"
Kyodo news agency quoted him as saying in a speech in
Shiga prefecture on Saturday.

Defence chief Yoshinori Ono has expressed expectations
of British help in Iraq if the troops stay on, the Asahi
said.

"Britain is in control of the entire southern region, so
if necessary we will hold full discussions with Britain
and have them maintain security."

If Britain does not send troops to Samawa, Japan will be
forced to rely on Iraqi troops for security, the Asahi
said.

Japan's defence ministry fears the focus of local
people's resentment could switch from Dutch troops to
the Japanese after March, the Asahi said, citing a
ministry official. The Japanese camp has been hit by
rocket shells, but there have been no casualties so far.

China testing Japan USA relations?

A rising China, North Korea's nuclear ambitions and the
setting of a new agenda for broader cooperation are
expected to test Japan-U.S. relations in the second term
of President George W Bush, according to U.S. experts.

"The reelection of Bush is good news for U.S.-Japan
relations because it really has been part of the most
effective alliance management in years," said Patrick
Cronin, senior vice president and director of studies at
the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"Some of those key players may be changing, but you've
already forged at the very highest level, the prime
minister (Junichiro Koizumi) and the president, a very
special relationship, and that remains as long as the
prime minister is there," he said.

Cronin said the No. 1 diplomatic and security policy
issue in Bush's second term is the war on terrorism
which is "inseparable from success in Iraq." Bush is
expected to seek continued involvement of Japan in the
Iraqi issue.

"I'm sure Bush will not be letting Koizumi off the hook
because Japan's role is vital, has really been vital to
this solution as witnessed by the prime minister's
standing close by and having the donor's conference
recently and not giving in to terrorism, all of those
have been important," he said.

Japan has dispatched Self-Defense Forces troops to Iraq
for a reconstruction and humanitarian assistance
mission. Koizumi is expected to decide shortly to extend
the SDF deployment in Iraq beyond the Dec 14 deadline.

Cronin said a second set of diplomatic and security
issues in Bush's second term will go beyond the Middle
East and focus on Asia, including North Korea's nuclear
arms program and a rising China.

For Japan, the planned realignment of U.S. troops in
Japan will be the most immediate issue but there is "no
easy answer because it is so politically integrated into
the society," he said.

But Cronin said, "The U.S.-Japan relationship is so
good. I have no doubt that that will be a very serious
fruitful discussion between the United States and
Japanese governments."

Balbina Hwang, policy analyst on Northeast Asia at the
Heritage Foundation, also said Japan-U.S. relations in
the last four years have been a "resounding success."

But she said there is a need for the two countries to
establish a set of long-term objectives for their
alliance that take into consideration the security
environment after the Sept 11, 2001 terrorist attacks
and possible strategic shifts in Asia, such as the
collapse of North Korea.

"Although Japan's military and financial contributions
to the war efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan are
significant and important, the two countries have not
developed a clear definition of their regional
alliance's role in extra-regional conflicts," Hwang
said.

"Moreover, less immediate issues, such as how the
alliance should address China's rise as a regional
power, have been pushed to the background by more
immediate threats such as North Korea," she said.

Japan can begin to set long-term objectives by
revisiting its 1997 Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense
Cooperation and specifying security threats and
interests beyond the current loose application of the
"defense of Japan as well as areas surrounding Japan,"
Hwang said.

"Japan's security commitments have already expanded
beyond the strict parameters of previous security
frameworks and should be rearticulated to reflect
current needs and threats, especially the proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction, antiterrorist
activities, and peacekeeping and reconstruction
efforts," she said.

But such efforts by Japan to rethink bilateral security
cooperation will certainly face a controversial issue —
whether to revise the war-renouncing Article 9 of the
Constitution and lift the ban on the use of the right of
collective self-defense.

The Japanese government interprets that to mean that
under international law Japan has the right to
collective self-defense — which involves coming to the
military aid of allies under attack — but that the
Constitution forbids the exercise of that right.

While stressing no foreigner has any business telling
Japan what it should do on the constitutional revision
issue, Hwang said she hopes there will be a "vigorous
public debate" in Japan.

"When they do that, I think they will discover that the
artificial restriction that has been placed through this
very odd interpretation of Article 9, probably no longer
serves the Japanese people in their own self-defense,
given the very changed security environment," she said.

Kent Calder, director of the Reischauer Center for East
Asian Studies at the Paul H Nitze School of Advanced
International Studies of Johns Hopkins University, said
the agenda for the Japan-U.S. alliance has been "far too
narrow" due mainly to the U.S. focus on Iraq.

"The United States should be contributing more actively
on the economy, environmental and the energy-policy
agendas," he said. "There should also be more priority
on cultural relations."

Calder said Japan needs to consider how to keep its
influence in Washington amid growing U.S. attention to
Chinese affairs.

A "bypass" phenomenon is "growing more serious within
the U.S.-Japan-China triangle, despite the strong
Bush-Koizumi relationship at the top," Calder said.

"I think the most serious issue is how influential Japan
will be in Washington relative to China, especially on
soft-security issues like energy," he said.

Calder said Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's
departure from the Bush administration may adversely
affect Japan-U.S. relations. Armitage, known as a strong
supporter of the Japan-U.S. alliance, has offered his
resignation along with Secretary of State Colin Powell.

"Bush and Koizumi will likely continue to be close but
much will depend on the ambassadors and the middle-range
officials," he said.

"Those networks could hardly be better than they are
now," he said. "It would be hard to replace a senior,
highly strategic official such as Armitage. Other Japan
specialists simply lack his seniority and consequent
influence."

Calder, meanwhile, said Japan does not necessarily need
to remove all its constraints on military activity.

"Japan has a comparative advantage in peaceful
interchange with other nations, especially in Asia,
whereas the United States has a comparative advantage in
the military sphere," he said.

"Some constraints help to preserve this basic division
of labor within the U.S.-Japan alliance, which has
proved functional for more than half a century," Calder
said.

"They also have inhibited arms races within Asia,
including those with China," he said. "They have also
made it easier for Japanese to support the U.S. presence
in Japan financially, since Japan has not had extensive
military expenditures offshore, due to the constraints."
by Yoichi Kosukegawa.