Is there a post sub-prime world?

Bank of Japan Gov. Toshihiko Fukui announces after the policy board meeting Tuesday that the BOJ will not raise interest rates for the time being, citing growing concern that a downturn in the U.S. economy could slow global growth.

Regarding the sub-prime financial crisis, Economist Dr. Madsen analyzes the risk of recession, and sees an unknown future for the consumption market, "a risk of crisis for the coming months", depending on what the regulators and professionals will decide. Dr. Madsen, the author of the Economist Intelligence Unit's quarterly Japan Country Reports and Senior Fellow at MIT's Center for International Studies hinted at the fact that "we maybe have not seen all yet." Market also knows about self regulation. "There are new financial products being created at regular rhythm".

So it is not so bad after all and there is a world after the sub prime crisis? Looking further, about East Asian economies, Dr. Madsen forecasts great future for Japan and Republic of Korea in the years ahead. "The high rise of China will be beneficial to both" while the distance will handicap Europeans and North America economies. Koizumi's so called boom "was created by China growth, and less by a so called Japan reform". There is no reason it should stop as China demands for upgrade are simply huge, he said.

Beijing envoy on North Korea's risk : "We are facing a new world"!

If the international community did not react in a timely manner as internal order in North Korea deteriorated rapidly, China would seek to take the initiative in restoring stability, this is according to a report that appeared in several publications in the world, based on the Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Institute of Peace and other think-tanks newsletters reaching my mailbox recently.

Who could be the best person to comment this report if not a senior Chinese official who worked on the 6 party talks, Ambassador Cui Tian-kai himself? Ambassador Cui is the current envoy from China, the successor of Vice Minister Wang Yi.

Cui Tian-kai was our guest at FCCJ January 18th. He faced more than 150 guests. The diplomat received a lot of questions (18 questioners as president Williams accounted). As Co MC of the conference with our president, and listening attentively to his words, I had the last question to wrap up this sumptuous event. I focussed on two words the Chinese ambassador often mentioned. These words are: "Security cooperation". Then, I asked him on this theme what China would do if a risk of complication related to nuclear issues would come from unpredictable DPRK and if China troops would stop DPRK, should the regime alter the security of nations in North East Asia? I felt a silent angel passed through the room, everyone kept its breath and watched Mr. Cui.



The comment was answered first as "hypothetical", but the question was tough enough to draw further lines from the Beijing envoy and here is a summary of the comment of our guest speaker:

"Let's prevent such a situation to happen... we are ready to work with the others including DPRK... tension has been here for half a century... but we are facing a new world, China, Japan, Russia RK and DPRK are to work together and in a way that everyone can feel more secure and share the fruits of development."

This was the diplomatic way to comment and as it was not a direct answer, I then simply repeated my question to have a clear cut answer from Beijing's dignitary. His 2nd comment came, witted and straight: "If you entirely believe any news of our troops movement in the US press, then you might be mistaken". "No further question", I answered with a smile that we both shared, and the folks in the event's room could breathe again, applauding to the talent of ambassador Cui who surely passed "magna cum laude" his passage through the international press based in Tokyo on that day. Just 3 months after his assignment as the man who speaks smoothly and in an amiable manner.

Naturally one highlighted comment that one can find in the press is that ambassador Cui estimated that the long-standing dispute between Japan and China on gas exploration rights in the East China Sea will likely be settled "well before" a visit to Japan by Chinese President Hu Jintao in spring.

Remains to see if it would simply be a joint exploitation that would be secured or if we are talking about a comprehensive agreement in the East China Sea, including the tough litigious issue of the demarcation line (a fault line probably in favor of Beijing, some specialists say). The latter might be more difficult to negotiate these coming days between Tokyo and Beijing. But aren't things getting better these days and the music played more in tone between these two East Asian colossus?


Olympian tune!

Pyongyang dictator's son and his magician on a romantic leave to Paris?

Next week, Kim Jong-nam the eldest son of Kim Jong-il, ruler of North Korea, is said to be again heading for Paris and this time with Ms. Hikita Tenko, the magician. Sulfurous rumour? No. Neither an escape from the Stalinian regime but a simple journey. Simple? Or is it an initiation journey back to the source of Korean shamanism* re-interpreted, how ironical, by the heir of a Marxist Leninist dictator bound for the capital of stars and lights?

Well, there are maybe suspicions of financial issues linked to this journey, or is it just gambling, medical treatment? Is it attraction and nostalgia for the atmosphere of France known as the country of lovers and for creating a romantic mood as Nicolas Sarkozy's alleged engagement with "Carla" attested. Ouch. What is related to the dictator's son travel to France? "If the journey is attested, maybe financial reasons", according to Tokyo based sources.



Kim Jong-nam was in Paris in november. He was caught by Asian media strolling in Paris streets and was asked what was he doing in the City of Lights, Kim Jong-Il son answered them in fluent French: "I came here to see a dentist. I don't have much to say. Sorry." Asked how he can speak fluent French, he replied, "You know I studied in Europe."

Kim Jong-nam was one of the heirs of the North Korean ruler until recently. It is believed that he was being groomed as Kim Jong-il's successor but it appears that, according to North Korea watchers, recent reports suggest that although he may for a time have fallen from favor. Nevertheless, Kim Jong-nam is now "once again seen as a possible successor to his father - dictator Dear Leader..."

Going to Paris with a magician is an other form of North Korean hazardous diplomacy?

Who is this magician? Princess Hikita Tenko is the stage name of Mariko Itakura (板倉満里子 Itakura Mariko) born in 1959 in Arai, Niigata, a region known for numerous cases of North Korean spies abducting Japanese citizens.



Tenko is a pop singer turned magician specializing in grand illusions. Her name is taken from Tenkō Hikita (引田天功 Hikita Tenkō), a male Japanese magician who was managed by the same person as Mariko and to whom Mariko was apprenticed in 1976.

A magical affair or a mere business trip, Harry Potter or Disneyland inspired, point is taken that the son of the dictator and the magician are for the least a quite unusual couple. More appreciated than a romance would be a North Korea democratization and denuclearization... "par un coup de baguette magique".


Dictators, ex or current, in action mode or in "peopleization mode", they all seem to be fascinated by the Seine river bank. Quite unfair and frankly " très discourtois."

* On the Korean peninsula, shamanism and magic are common phenomenon, if true, the fact is that dictatorship and repression of North Korean society neither played nor altered deep rooted superstition and traditions regarded as "opium mania" in North Korean society. Who are these magicians? A woman known as a shaman is called a “Mudang” and is part of a tradition that predates nearly every religion and looks to the spiritual world for guidance. A Mudang is chosen two ways. In divine election, the spirits have communicated with them and realized the person’s ability to communicate spiritually. Other Mudangs come from a line of shamans that pass down their tradition. I met some of them and realized documentary magazine on the French broadcasting channel.

JSDF Out to Africa

After the tragic comedy of the "terror bill", Japan's ruling coalition forced its law through parliament to revive an international U.S. led anti-terrorism mission in the Indian Ocean. Done. Now what does it mean for other engagement of Japan's defense on mini scale and expeditionary cute missions overseas? Well, simple, a Japanese military specialist said: "Chinese sent troops for PKO in recent missions", they did it, then the Japanese did it too and they will follow Beijing's mood again. "士馬 tel le Samouraï chevauchant son noble destrier."



Absolutely true, nationalisme oblige "China joined the UN PKO both in East Timor and in Cambodia" as Professor Edward Friedman wrote, "China has launched a major effort to train Chinese PKO forces and has brought trainees to China from all over Asia." Remember the early 90's, when JSDF did a deployment for PKO to Cambodia, helped by France defense personal, and, to Mozambique * in addition to Middle East? The Japanese armed forces specialist continues: "So, Japanese will do it again, as Chinese do", and this time following the mood of the time, to Africa too because things changed there.

This China Japan watching each other moves is an "interesting element", fact of major importance, a fresh update, in substance, according to political scientist Dr. Richard J Samuels, author of "Securing Japan: Tokyo's Grand Strategy and the Future of East Asia" (Cornell Studies). "Japan is more rational than we think", Dr. Samuels said to an informal group of Japan watchers recently in Tokyo.

Indeed Japan is "considering sending members of its Self-Defense Forces to a peacekeeping training facility in Africa as instructors, this is according to government sources on Thursday. The first dispatch is intended to highlight Japan's international contribution, as it often faces difficulty sending peacekeeping troops to Africa due to stringent domestic rules according to sources.

In Africa, instructors from European and other countries' forces are training military personnel and other experts at facilities such as the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Center in Ghana and the Peacekeeping School in Mali.

Tokyo has recently rejected a request from Burundi to send an SDF helicopter unit to help airlift its soldiers to take part in the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur, Sudan, and a similar request from Tanzania, citing the lack of a comprehensive peace accord there.

Under the PKO cooperation law enacted in 1992, Japan requires parties of a conflict to have agreed on a cease-fire and accept Japan's participation in a peacekeeping operation in the area, and that Japan remains neutral and withdraws if these conditions are no longer met."

* The law has allowed the SDF to take part in operations in Cambodia, Mozambique and three other countries. SDF troops are participating in the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Heights to maintain the cease-fire between Israel and Syria, and the U.N. Mission in Nepal under a cease-fire accord between the Nepalese government and Maoist rebels.


One cannot say one day that China is backward and the day after that China is a growing threat thanks to European, Russian, Israel military technologies... Click the title to access to this blog "angrychineseblogger" which describes the contradicting views prominently growing in the "Kick China's butt" sphere.

Defense Inc. generous funds

I remember attending some superb seminars in Tokyo on Japan US defense, invitations of VIPs entirely paid by US Japan institutions linked with defense firms. At that time officials from both US and Japan attended and offered their speeches about the issue of the moment. North Korea, China, Integration etc. But who paid such seminars and for what reason, some people asked...? Here is a good answer in this article: "Akiyama reveals sphere of influence" (Click the title to access the story.)

The answers are obvious except for Mr Akiyama and his American colleagues. Insiders know who is targeted in Nagatacho and in town, will these people be moved out? There is one who dares to talk about it these days. From Tottori (furusato), he is born in the year of the Rooster* and he's rising in Japanese politics. He, no doubt, is ready to wash his hands and money a.s.a.p. from the Akiyama Moriya Miyazaki case.



Quote: " Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba effectively admitted Tuesday that the Defense Ministry controls a slush fund worth tens of millions of yen pooled from money earmarked for gathering information and investigating crimes committed by Self-Defense Forces personnel. "We are not in a situation where we can answer correctly whether (the fund) is worth ¥20 million or ¥70 million," Ishiba told the House of Councilors Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense, rather than dismissing the existence of such a fund. He was responding to a question by an opposition lawmaker over a recent news report on the fund. Ishiba said he has a "vital interest" in whether money is used for its original purpose of collecting information or other activities, indicating the ministry will announce how it will deal with the allegation after fully investigating the alleged slush fund, including its total amount. Some retired ministry officials have said the Defense Ministry and the SDF built up the slush fund over several decades using fake receipts." (Agencies)

Defense Ministry plans to talk about " the alleged slush fund " later, in January.


Born in the year of the Rooster? It means "hardworking, resourceful, courageous and talented, Roosters are self-assured people. They possess powerful personalities and are notoriously dominant. In groups they are vivacious, amusing and popular. But Roosters can be conceited creatures, vain and boastful, with a strong egotistical need to constantly be the center of attention."

Sarkozy wants Japan and Brasil among permanent members at U.N.S.C.

In Tuesday's Paris press conference attracting waves of journalists caught by the media frenzy curiosity for the new France President, Nicolas Sarkozy declared that the UNSC should get 5 new members: Japan, Germany, Brasil, India and an African nation. "How can things work out well in XXIst century with a system built in the XXth Century? Sarkozy told reporters.



French leader also announced he would most probably marry model-turned-singer Carla Bruni. Sarkozy's romance with Bruni reportedly started shortly after the French leader and his second wife, Cecilia Sarkozy, divorced three months ago. Sarkozy, 52, and Bruni, a 40 year old Italian born French model with a successful folk music career, have since been photographed together in recent weeks in locations from Disneyland Paris to the pyramids in Egypt, often entwined arm-in-arm, looking happy.

The conservative president has been accused of publicizing his relationship with Bruni to try to distract from a dramatic recent slide in polls. Some analysts also say that "Sarkozy's flaunting of his private life is a turnoff for many voters, especially more traditional ones." Sarkozy said he wanted "to break with a long tradition of French leaders keeping their love lives secret, with the media's tacit accord." He alluded to late former French President Francois Mitterrand, who kept the existence of a mistress and illegitimate daughter a secret for most of his 1981-95 presidency. Sarkozy pointed out that "journalists felt comfortable" asking him questions they had never dared to ask his predecessors. "I have been a part of a break with a deplorable tradition in our country: hypocrisy and lies," he said.

Sarkozy's approval rating stands around 48 percent, a drop of seven points in a month, a sharp departure from his highest level, 65 percent, in July, according to a recent poll from CSA. People got bored and disappointed with French politics during former president Jacques Chirac. Today, media commentators claim that "Sarko" succeeded in attracting, thanks to the paparazzi stories, more French voters than ever who now want to get informed with their president's policy in addition to his private life, and therefore raising interest for national politics.

A kind of Koizumi Gekijo (theater) "a la mode française"?

On the international economy, France president stated that he expects the G-8 to transform in a G-13. How? "By thinking sound and fair, and by discussing the question with Paris "allies."

Sarkozy's wide-ranging news conference Tuesday touched on questions from the economy to the environment to ways to promote diversity. Sarkozy gave a one-hour speech, then opened the floor to questions. The second question was about his relationship to Bruni — an issue that has had France buzzing for weeks. "What is extraordinary is that you were kind enough to wait until the second question," he told the reporters, drawing laughs.

I feel like people are in a mood of hypnotic fascination same as what fans feel for a rock-star, with Sarko, maybe a new political phenomenon is re appearing in the "City of Lights" fascinated by the Napoleon's ego and decisive rules. Locally here, Toyako remote G8 Summit, while US and Japan communication and leadership are transitionally weakened, will no doubt flash on Sarkozy and his talk-true-to-people tailored communication to gain what I would call a raison d'être médiatique for the costly G8 show.


Yes, but is it enough to deliver and then convince electors on voting day?

2008 Nippon Verbatim

Entendu hier a la réception de nouvel an 2008 de la Chambre japonaise de commerce, de la Keizai Doyukai et du Keidanren a laquelle participaient le premier ministre Fukuda et le Gotha de la politique, du commerce et de l'économie japonaise.

"2008 sera très dure pour l'économie japonaise et mondiale et les échéances électorales internationales nuiront a l'adoption de mesures appropriées pour améliorer nos économies, mais cela, personne n 'osera vous le dire aujourd'hui ici." Relations Chine Japon: "Notre voisin chinois ne risque-t-il pas l'implosion emmêlé dans ses contradictions politiques et économiques?" Source nippone éminente qui adhère a son anonymat.



Citation d'une autre autorité en la matière: Tadashi Okamura, puissance invitante a cette même "Shinenkai" tenue au splendide hotel New Otani et dirigeant la "Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry": Quote: "We have to be cautious about the economy's prospects, as there are the clouds over the U.S. and European economies and high oil prices." Les mauvais génies contrediraient-ils les prédictions de l'année du Rat théoriquement réputée pour sa prospérité?

Japan new rich... a performance!

"They customize the headrests of their Rolls-Royces with "Harry Potter writing," sip martinis poured over diamonds and buy $130,000 watches on a whim....

... The spending habits reflect a deepening economic divide. Japan, long known for its safe and stable corporate culture, introduced performance-based wages and stock options and made it easier to hire and fire temporary workers to boost competitiveness after the 1990s economic slump. This has produced a new business elite as well as a growing number of poor and unskilled temporary workers. For luxury goods makers, the new rich are an appetizing prospect. The number of people in Japan holding more than $1 million in financial assets grew 5.1 percent... to some 1.5 million, about three times as many as in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong put together, according to the Capgemini/Merrill Lynch World Wealth Report." (To read the report, click the title)

Japan "sales day"

Back to work! I attended the Prime Minister New Year press conference at Kantei, and my ears were caught with these words, more an enigma than a statement. What is the wise man (some call him the Tanuki) up to? "I would like to make this year the start of a society where the people and the consumers play the center role," Prime minister Fukuda also wants politicians and the government to drastically change their way of thinking and assume a more public and a consumer-oriented viewpoint.



Have sales started, is it a wishful thinking, a good or bad points to bad ministers or is there a cabinet reshuffle ahead? By the way, during the conference the Prime minister clearly stated his anger in diplomatic words towards Japanese press, (I remember that the Emperor too showed his dissatisfaction with Japanese media interpretations recently...)

At the end of December, during his visit to China, Fukuda is reported to have told Japanese press that he would keep an open mind toward reshuffling the Cabinet in the new year (2008). Right after, reports said Fukuda would do a reshuffle mid-January before the Diet opens.

Fukuda: "I don't know whose practical joke it was, but I think the media reporting went against my intentions, what I said was that everything about it was still a blank sheet of paper, including the possibility of reshuffling the Cabinet, or not."

Er... Then it is up to media to sale paper.

And then, I went to the Stocks exchange. Bad bad time... Tokyo stocks plunged on the new year's first day of trading, -700 something points, the market, it is said, focussed on American economic slowdown and surging oil prices, ($100 per barrel overnight in New York)

Shortly before the massive selling began, the TSE held a ceremony to mark the beginning of the year's trading. It started with the ringing of the stock exchange's bell by Financial Services Minister Yoshimi Watanabe and women dressed in kimono.



TSE President Atsushi Saito then gave a speech warning of the bourse's declining appeal and pledging his utmost efforts to make it more attractive:

"Last year, the subprime loan problem dealt a hard blow to stock markets worldwide. While most markets in developed countries managed to end 2007 higher despite the subprime woes, stock markets in Japan and a few other countries finished lower, this means our country is losing its appeal as an investment target although huge excess funds, including oil money, are flowing across global markets." He wants to make the Japanese market more attractive, as by making new financial products available and by setting up a "high-risk, high-return" market that will limit participation to professional investors.


January resolutions and sales day, indeed, Yasuo Fukuda wished YouTube users a happy New Year in a 5 minutes video posted in English and Japanese and spoke about the challenges facing the world and that Japan would become a key player on the international scene. “Of these challenges, those that concern the environment seriously affect all who live on this earth. Japan’s mission is to play a major role in this area.” From what I saw, it was not very clear what the G-8 nations would do about it in his press conference at the Kantei prime minister residence just a few months before the Hokkaido G8 Summit. Besides, the US and Japan were quite dull in Bali summit. Right? So what role are we talking and playing about? By the way, if I check the Prime minister conference picture, isn't it a can of Sapporo beer standing on the desk? For a Kanpaiiii live or... what? Sales day, I say!