Ce que cache l'expansion chinoise

Depuis Deng Xiaoping, chacun des dirigeant chinois, Jiang, Hu, affirme que les forces armées chinoises sont incapables de gagner une guerre moderne! Si l'on compare avec les forces armées européennes ou surtout américaines, c'est vrai. Quelques amis chinois m'ont donc dressé un petit plan de réflexions de manière à mettre à jour mes vues sur les "problèmes régionaux" en Asie du Nord-Est, je vous les livre traduits "brut de fonderie".

Devant ce qu'ils perçoivent comme des offensives en mesure de nuire à leur développement économique, les Chinois ont cherché à développer leurs systèmes de défenses contre ce qu'ils considèrent comme "des menaces américaines immédiates": donc, contre les drones, contre les avions furtifs, les missiles de croisière et les hélicoptères d'attaques, contre la marine etc, dont la fonctionnalité n'est plus à démontrer depuis les conflits ou zones d'instabilité (Irak, Afghanistan, Corée du nord, Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord). En mer aussi le pouvoir d'intimidation des forces américaines a contraint la Chine à mieux concevoir son implication stratégique dans "sa mondialisation".

Ce qui donc a changé depuis les années 90 c'est la certitude qu'ont les stratèges chinois de devoir défendre plus encore leur territoire, leur Chine nationale, y compris les îlots taïwanais et les autres, bref tout ce qui semblera compatible avec les ambitions historiques chinoises, sur les océans et mers du sud. Pour cela, la Chine et ses portes-voix y vont "fortissimo" en mettant en avant les intérêts stratégiques nationaux dans les espaces maritimes, aériens, spatiaux et sans omettre le cyberworld, à la fois au plan national comme à l'étranger...

Les écrits théoriques vont bien au-delà des idées simplistes d'interdiction d'accès de certaines zones maritimes. Les tâches sécuritaires immédiates sont clairement définies: la protection des eaux territoriales (redéfinir les cartes marines, les litiges territoriaux avec le Japon et d'autres pays asiatiques), l'interdiction d'accès de l'espace aérien chinois, la défense des zones dites stratégiques, y compris outre-mer. Mais leur mot-clé est défense pas offense. Nuance ou foutage de gueule?

Voila en quelques mots ce qui apparaît aujourd'hui être une (la) vision stratégique chinoise. Un concept autrement plus vaste et pas nécessairement vindicatif comme celui mis en avant en permanence par les stratèges japonais ou américains et l'Otan selon lesquels la menace chinoise est offensive.

Je la vois défensive ni plus ni moins. La Chine a des ambitions, celles de se prémunir contre les atteintes aux droits fondamentaux de son territoire, de sa culture, de son sens de l'histoire. La Chine a des ambitions dignes du XXIe siècle. Mais sont-elles calquées sur un modèle occidental?

Dire que la Chine est une puissance pacifiste et non interventionniste à l'image du fétiche national, le Panda, serait une grave erreur d'analyse, car si le Panda se nourrit énormément et son appétit est insatiable, son ardeur à y parvenir est stupéfiante. Mais son poids est aussi son pire obstacle. Ici, pour la Chine, le poids, c'est sa population. La démographie (les masses dans l'orthodoxie du PCC) est une politique qui détermine ainsi tous les impératifs depuis la révolution de 1949. Elle continuera de guider les pas du géant asiatique.

Et pour conclure, ce papier que je lis dans Time, suite aux recommandation de cet éminent co-listier du NBR forum Rodney E. Armstrong qui écrit: "It is puzzling that the American introduction into East Asia last June of at least two giant Ohio class submarines, each capable of firing volleys of 154 Tomahawk conventional-warhead missiles over ranges up to 1000 miles, has not been widely publicized in Japan or East Asia."

Title "U.S. Missiles Deployed Near China Send a Message"
http://bit.ly/e8NMeM

Image panda juggling & Reporter's Notes

Scenes from a Toxic Marriage between Tokyo Media & Politics

Tonight (January 14th) press conference from Prime Minister Kan at the Kantei was an other awful description of how some of the Japanese journalists assigned at prime minister Kan or at the Kantei are nothing but really full of themselves. During the Q&A some of them shouted to Mister Kan in saying: "You do not answer to the question, I asked you this etc..." On 2 or 3 occasions I thought there was an intention to push him to end the conference. The tone was improper and it is not journalistically acceptable.

But the issue here is that, as usual, these self proclaimed local media people ask the same questions and want an answer for their Editor in chief, eventually for their readers and do not always have the intelligence or the professionalism to understand the progression of answers and questions.

I emceed and anchored hundreds of events with guests and I admit that I rate Naoto Kan and his PR staff with 3 stars for this handling of the press conference given after his cabinet reshuffle in spite of the aggressions disguised in questions as seen during the conference nationally broadcasted.

The worst is that the message of Kan is not conveyed to the public. An other consequence of the cheating system imposed by the "kisha club system".

Most interesting would be if someone at Kantei could dispatch an exact copy into English of the exact session held on this including the Q&A ? I imagine the result will show that indeed some at the Sankei, Yomiuri or Asahi have not at stake the situation of the country but simply care about their little vanity or ratings. In any case a good reason not to buy their paper regarding the account of Kan's government part II. At a time when crucial realism is expected, who can trust these parodies of journalists?

Needless to say that we were half a dozen foreign journalists invited to attend this prime minister conference and to ask questions, and, after the conf' we 3 or 4 of us all had the same perception of the aggressive tone of the Japanese reporters. Is it a new trend, one of us asked? It looked very amateurish.

So!

What is it behind the media war between public, media and Japanese politicians? Rating? Conformism? Money? All. Not necessarily informative debates are offered to viewers as planned by PR departments and tough guys who pose as media. Still today in Japan, local & national journalists continue to gamble with truth or financial interest of dark origins.

Sometimes the "war" is intense not to reveal the fact and offer the links of understanding to their audience. Nothing of that sort in the west? Not what I mean, but democracies favor transparency. Conformism or fear of extreme authority? (for instance read Nietzsche on individual power theory).

I remember the strange collaboration of some Japanese TV stations with authorities, gangs or dangerous sects (Aum sect for instance), or the lack of questioning as long as the kisha club has not given the green light. We have had a good example during the Sumo scandal recently.

Still there are people who work as useful idiots or worst as advocates of such bullying methods. I therefore found this insightful article from the Mainichi most interesting as it is revealing practices of bullying in the other medias, in politics and in social network spheres. Mainichi is certainly one of the best if not the best newspaper in Japan for reporting without an --arrogant--attitude.

Quotes:

Prime Minister Naoto Kan appeared on Hodo Station, a popular news program on TV Asahi, as a guest on Jan. 5. Usually, a TV program draws attention from viewers when an incumbent prime minister appears.

At the same time, BS11 was airing its talk show, "Inside Out," in which ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) heavyweight Ichiro Ozawa appeared as a guest. A close-up of Ozawa's face was projected on a huge screen in the satellite broadcaster's studio while Prime Minister Kan and anchorman Ichiro Furutachi appeared on another small screen nearby.

"The network (TV Asahi) invited the prime minister to its program to face off against us," a staff member of Inside Out said. It was later revealed that some DPJ legislators were instructed by the prime minister's office to watch Kan on Hodo Station -- in other words, not to see Ozawa.

No wonder Kan harbored a feeling of rivalry against Ozawa as he declared at his first news conference of the year that he will urge Ozawa to step down in an apparent bid to prop up the popularity of his own administration.

Read the story here:

http://bit.ly/g3UbwD

Japanese version, quotes:

菅直人首相がテレビ朝日の「報道ステーション」に出演した。今月５日夜のことである。現職の首相が民放テレビに単独出演すれば注目度は上がるはずだ。

　その時たまたま、衛星放送局ＢＳ１１のスタジオで、前日ビデオ収録した対談番組「インサイドアウト」のオンエアに立ち会っていた。大きなモニターにゲストの小沢一郎・民主党元代表の顔。周囲の小型モニターには他局の映像が流れている。あれ？　首相が古舘伊知郎キャスターと並んで映っているぞ。

　スタジオのベテラン放送人たちにはピンとくるものがあったようだ。「おーっ、うちの番組に、総理をぶつけてきたぞ」

　後から聞いた話だが、官邸から総理を見るように（つまり小沢氏を見ないよう）連絡を受けた民主党議員がいたそうだ。

http://bit.ly/fkJfPJ

Have a good coffee!

Sources, Mainichi and Reporter's notes

Japan on the edge of a social dislocation?

Among the current problem that Japan encounters:

A summary of press agencies and reports of the new year's challenges: Dreadful. What is Magician Kan going to bring out of his hat?

Point 1: No hope: 30,000 people a year have committed suicides since 1998.

"Japan’s aging population, a growing national debt, the heavy reliance on manufacturing, lack of imagination, deep rooted conservatism, seniority (equal to a mental paralysis to progress), all of which are effectively killing what was once thought destined to be the world’s leading economic superpower."

Succeeding Prime Ministers in the last three years and a nasty diplomatic row with China over the detention of a trawler captain by the Japanese Coast Guard is also hurting. And a freeze with the US on the Security treaty obligations.

Not only.

Japan’s population falls due to a low fertility rate of just 1.3 children per woman. It is expected that the population will drop from 127 million to just 90 million by 2055, with 40% of that number being over 65s.

No immigration, robots only. Crime and violence on the rise. Example shown in the manga and "anime", Japanese cartoons.

School Days was a controversy in Japan.

"The last episode of the series was banned

from distribution because of its barbarity"

Japan lived with 2 decades of economic stagnation, deflation being chosen in stead of a more vehement economy. Consequences: university students worry whether they can find steady employment or support their families, live their life and create a family, buy their house, make their dreams come true.

A third of Japan’s workforce is temporary workers or "Freeters" going from one job to another. They are unable to qualify for unemployment benefits, and make up more than three-quarters of the nation’s jobless.

Japan’s Prime Minister, Nato Kan, is to reshuffle his cabinet. Is he aware of the crisis? Yes, Has he solutions? He says he is to open the country, reduce trade barriers and tariffs and loosening regulations to make the country a more attractive proposition to outside investors. But is it attractive enough? Is the nation able to shift from 20 years of apathy?

"A free trade agreement with the U.S. and other nations, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, is also under consideration. Though it could lead to Japan’s economic revival and cheaper imports, it could also cause significant job losses and social dislocation of the rural classes."

PM Kan's wife was a desperate PR on Wednesday to her husband when she addressed pretty well actually the foreign media based in Japan. This will not be enough unfortunately to convince the Japan's flock that current administration is up to the challenges. She actually hinted at it, with words of extra safety care, saying he [Kan] was initiating a sort of new path of reform. Still we are in the 3rd modernization of Japan after Meiji, post-war re industrialization and today's Japan's being reinvented or looking for new models to this achievement. Maybe it goes better when using economy for people's benefits...

Sources: agencies, kyodo, nhk, yahoo, reporter's notes.

Emails, Japan Twitts, Cyberwar, Spams, Hacktivism: Log off or shift!

Log Jam

Japanese Tweets sent as the New Year 2011 came in Tokyo boosted traffic within the network to a record 6,939 tweets per second (TPS). The figure more than doubles the previous record of 3,283 TPS, set during Japan’s surprise victory over Denmark in summer’s World Cup in South Africa.

"Just four seconds after midnight in Japan on January 1st, Twitterers set an all-time record in the number of Tweets sent per second. At that moment, the world sent a staggering 6,939 TPS wishing friends and followers a fond ‘Akemashite omedetou gozaimasu’ (‘Happy New Year!’)." Twitter said that in Japan, with a population of over 127 million, "mobile networks have been known to crash under the strain of this collective cheer. This year, on New Year’s Eve, many people turned to Twitter to celebrate."

So here we are.

You navigate and work on the Internet thanks to this sequence of letters and number, but the number of available IPv4 addresses is expected to run out before the end of 2011, experts say. Indeed with the proliferation of smart phones, mobile devices and sensors, all of which use IP addresses, the total number available is endangered. So is your use of your favorite digital object. Time to migrate to the newer IPv6 standard? Not so easy. Let's see why with a few experts and reviews quotes sampled here:

"Internet Protocol Version 6 (IPv6) is a version of the Internet Protocol that is designed to succeed Internet Protocol version 4 (IPv4). IPv4 is the first publicly used Internet Protocol and has been in operation since 1981. In 1998, the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) ratified a new Internet Protocol, IPv6. It shifts to a 128-bit IP address space (each broken into hexadecimal groups), which means around 340 undecillion (340 times 10 to the 36th power) possible addresses, or billions of addresses for every living person. This expanded space is critical for the continued growth of the Internet.

IPv6 benefits will include a level of security baked into the protocol. IPv4 was designed for an "age of innocence" with a small Internet population. IPv6 is for a bigger, more cynical age, so it carries capabilities for verifying addresses and known identities, and establishing trust between routers. It should become harder, for example, for criminals to use "address spoofing" attacks, where Websites or e-mail messages misrepresent where they come from.

IPv6 era routers and firewalls will provide greater protection against anonymous attacks, with much simpler and more reliable, secure connections for business computers moving financial and other sensitive data among servers and back offices."

But not simple:

"Top of the list for 2011 is managing privacy obligations, “especially with reference to the use of cloud computing, and the growing use of social networking in larger organizations.” Also high up on the agenda is managing computer security. “The criminals are having a purple patch here at the moment caused by a combination of the commoditisation of malware, the division of labour allowing increased specialization by cyber criminals, and the limited security skills of general users.” The adoption of IPv6, which may be on the technology roadmap for major users but which is just not intuitive like IPv4." IPv4 still works anyway, so convincing business owners to invest in IPv6 will continue to be difficult."

Solution required.

Until now, the internet has been treated like "an uncontrollable independent external entity." Some already use it for their private eyes, some call it also cyberwar*, thanks to the underground web (used by dissidents, secrets services, militaries, hackers, netizens, lawyers, reporters). This year we'll see some serious attempts to bring it under the control by traditional power brokers [these are governments] In practical terms, most of these efforts will come to nothing! But one thing is sure everyone tries to protect even more one's data after the Cablegates by Wikileaks.

" The National Security Agency is building one of the largest and most expensive data centers as a place to gather and analyze intelligence data. At $1.2 billion, this is the largest Department of Defense construction project underway. Officials broke ground at the site 25 miles south of Salt Lake City Thursday, and it will give NSA diversity with a separate data center beyond the one it has in Ft. Meade, Md., says NSA Deputy Director J. Chris Inglis. "In an era when our nation and its allies are increasingly dependent on the integrity of information and systems supported, transmitted, or stored in cyberspace, it is essential that that space is as resilient and secure as possible," says Inglis in a written statement... Construction starts this summer and will last nearly three years, partly because the government plans to spread funding for it over that period. Construction jobs could number up to 10,000 and permanent jobs once it is completed could number 200. " (itworld) unquote.

* Cyberwar, definition: "an attack that would cause the same type of destruction as the traditional military, with military force as an appropriate response."

URL quoted:

http://bit.ly/ebCz2Y

http://bit.ly/eFL7Xu

Sources: PC world, readwriteweb, replica imagesofthepast,

computerworld & Reporter's notes