Monday, December 17, 2012

Japan hawkish political heir Shinzo ABE

- Nationalist Shinzo Abe is to become Japan's prime minister and history suddenly reappears after Sunday's election of his LDP party at the Parliament. He resigned as prime minister for health reasons in 2007, at that time Japan did not have access to various medicines because of the stubbornness of the bureaucracy and the pharmaceuticals lobby. His party, the LDP, had also entered into a succession of endless corruptions and scandals. After 3 years of the DPJ experience led by Hatoyama, Kan and Noda, Shinzo ABE is back to power and he said he changed. But the question is: has the nature of those who made him triumph as the front of the LDP fundamentally changed? Who are they and where do these people come from?

Shinzo ABE belongs to the conservative nationalist origins of Japan politics. He is the son of Shintaro ABE. Shinzo ABE also is the grandson-in-law of Prime Minister Nobusuke KISHI. Kishi was a prime minister of Japan in the late 50's nicknamed "Showa era ghost-monster", a "Class A" war crimes suspect declared by the Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers after 1945. His biological younger brother, was Eisaku Sato who would also become a prime minister. Anti-communist, rich, released in 1948 from Sugamo jail, Kishi became a prime minister in the late 50's who supported US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty at a time of massive anti-American students demonstrations. Kishi is credited as being a key player in the initiation of the "1955 System", the extended period during which a single political party, the LDP, remained the dominant party in Japanese politics. The LDP system ruled since the end of world war II in spite of the Morihiro HOSOKAWA 1993-1994 first non-LDP government since 1955, he was the eldest son of marquis Morisada Hosokawa clan, and after the 2009 Democratic party of Japan 3 years in power.

- "In this undated file photo released by Shinzo Abe Office, Shinzo Abe, front row third from right, sits on the lap of his grandfather and then Japanese Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi while his father, Shintaro Abe, front row right, and his mother, Yoko, back row right, and his elder brother, Nobuhiro, front row left, pose for a family photo at unknown place. This photo was taken when Shinzo was attending a kindergaten. The Liberal Democratic Party’s victory in Japan’s parliamentary election Sunday, Dec. 16, 2012 virtually ensures that the LDP leader Shinzo Abe, who resigned as prime minister for health reasons in 2007 after just a year in office, will get a second chance to try to lead Japan out of its economic slump." (

- Today Japan is at a crossroad and as BBC said, will Mr ABE have the desire, the will and the capability to rebuild Japan's economy and re build the relations with China? Time will say. Next nation election: July 2013 (Upper House, Senate)

December 16th 2012 general election, the results: An "overwhelming victory in Japan's general election Sunday, setting the stage for Shinzo Abe to resume the premiership and pursue stronger defence and conservative nuclear energy policies." (Kyodo news) and a severe defeat for the DPJ 21 months in the first major vote after the triple catastrophe of 3/11 and the impossibility to put their Manifesto into practice by 3 Democrat prime ministers Hatoyama, Kan, and Noda. The next prime minister will be Shinzo Abe as leader of the winning party, aided by the Buddhist party Komeito  which is the arm of a controversial Buddhist sect Soka Gakkai. He wants to change the Constitution and rearm Japan, to keep intact the nuclear industry for its military option. The day after the vote, 47% who abstained or didn't vote for LDP, wonder about Japan's future in the hands of a hawkish leader encouraged by Japan's ally, the US whose "hands" have encouraged the LDP one party domination for the last 60 years.

This is where the people are today, disappointed but not surprised, in a Japan massively convinced of the corruption nature of Japanese politics and commerce practises, unconcerned by politics, sure of a short-time musical chairs policy due to the selfishness of the rulers and inability to break the ceiling of Japan's money politics. The youth especially do not commit to any ideology except to the materialism satisfaction provided by years of consumerism inflicted by an export tuned industrial machine.

The last political motivation of Japanese society came after the 3/11 tsunami and nuclear accident of Fukushima. Japanese people seemed to have given into a political awakening. I am curious to see how these tens of millions of Japanese are going to view the return of the LDP "in business." 2015 will be the year when the consumption tax will double to 10% and imposed on Japan households, it was a main issue in the campaign, it could be the beginning of a nightmare for Mr Abe's friends.

For the rest of Abe's friends, those dangerous patriot-nationalists, heirs of war criminals and proud of it, with a dream to see Japan plays a role as a powerful nation, as Japan did in colonial time and war time since 1910, becoming a weapons exporting machine, unmoved by claims of neighbouring nations, those who privilege a nationalistic, discriminative and warmonger character in the name of a distorted review of history and art of the Bushido, those whose ambiguity remains in their fascination for the Nazi Germany and the Fascist Italy of Mussolini, those who supported Abe's victory for months, especially when he visited the Yasukuni shrine a few months ago August 15th and 17th October, and hope to see him review the article 9 of the Constitution, based on acute denial, emotion and ignorance of their own history, for these people today is a "VD".

Abe is the heir of a hermetic system which can produce the worst in politics, as history demonstrated. These people are a limited number in Japan for the benefit of the rest of the world. Japan remains a democratic nation as long as the fundamentals are respected. With the return of a minor league in charge, the social laws, the working laws, the freedom of thought, the benevolence towards the weak,  and the access to information are to be tested. The Senkaku Diaoyu and Takeshima Dokdo territorial disputes and the North Korean nuclear threats, the post Fukushima, the TPP and Europe Japan free trade agreements will be diplomatic tests to Mr Abe's administration. Can he deliver, this time?

Results of the December 16th 2012 Parliament election.

Participation Kyodo News estimated turnout at 59.7 percent, down about 10 percentage points from the last lower house election in 2009.

LDP: 294
Komeito: 31
DPJ: 57
Japan Restauration (Ishihara-Hashimoto) : 54
Your Party: 18
Kada: 9
JCP: 8
SPJ: 2
Muneo Suzuki: 1
Ozawa Ichiro: 1
Independents: 5

Exchange rate and Nikkei on Monday :
Dec. 17, 2012 
Dollar-Yen: 84.03-84.11 (10:57)
Euro-Yen : 110.57-110.65 (10:57)
Nikkei 225:  9883.39 145.83 (10:39)
Topix:  808.88 7.84 (10:40)


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